Dragaera

Jhereg-Dragon War #1

Tue Oct 8 15:28:25 PDT 2002

On Tuesday, October 8, 2002, at 06:25 PM, Gaertk at aol.com wrote:

> In a message dated 10/8/2002 3:50:12 PM Eastern Standard
> Time, "Ruhlen, Rachel Louise (UMC-Student)"
> <RuhlenR at missouri.edu> writes:
>
>> Here's what I've found:
>> He says it occurred nearly a full cycle before the
>> Interregnum, about 10,000 years,
> [...]
>> 10,000 years is an awfully short time for a full cycle.
>>  The shortest reign is 17*17, or 289 years [...]  The
>> longest is 17*17*17, 4913, for an average of 2601.  The
>> shortest possible *cycle* is 4913 (17 Houses, 289 years
>> each).  An average cycle is 44,217.
>
> The average isn't neccessarily the median.  And Vlad's just
> giving a very rough estimate, so getting within an order of
> magnitude is good enough.  Note that in the passage where he
> discusses the min/max reigns, he's way off for the max.
>
> --KG

Also remember that Steve has said many times Vlad doesn't always know 
whaat he is talking about so I would take Vlad's calculations with a 
grain of salt.
----
"Do I contradict myself? Very well, I contradict myself (I am large, I 
contain multitudes)"--Walt Whitman