On Tuesday, October 8, 2002, at 06:25 PM, Gaertk at aol.com wrote: > In a message dated 10/8/2002 3:50:12 PM Eastern Standard > Time, "Ruhlen, Rachel Louise (UMC-Student)" > <RuhlenR at missouri.edu> writes: > >> Here's what I've found: >> He says it occurred nearly a full cycle before the >> Interregnum, about 10,000 years, > [...] >> 10,000 years is an awfully short time for a full cycle. >> The shortest reign is 17*17, or 289 years [...] The >> longest is 17*17*17, 4913, for an average of 2601. The >> shortest possible *cycle* is 4913 (17 Houses, 289 years >> each). An average cycle is 44,217. > > The average isn't neccessarily the median. And Vlad's just > giving a very rough estimate, so getting within an order of > magnitude is good enough. Note that in the passage where he > discusses the min/max reigns, he's way off for the max. > > --KG Also remember that Steve has said many times Vlad doesn't always know whaat he is talking about so I would take Vlad's calculations with a grain of salt. ---- "Do I contradict myself? Very well, I contradict myself (I am large, I contain multitudes)"--Walt Whitman