> Of course, as it was the end of the *first* Great Cycle, it's > possible that > most people thought it wouldn't be significantly different > from a regular > turn of the Cycle; except for some powerful seers that may > have managed to > cut through the "fog" that the disaster probably caused in their > visions. One could easily imagine some doomsday cults having > cropped up, > thinking that the end of the 17th Cycle would be the end of Dragerea > (which, of course, was almost true), but that they would be > ignored by the > "sensible" masses. Unlike Y2K, for example, the exact date of the "turn of the Cycle" was almost certainly unknown, and I'm still not entirely convinced that Zerika's reign qualifies as the cycle turning; perhaps it is just a continuation of the previous Phoenix reign. When Vlad sees the physical Cycle in Taltos, his remarks do not seem to indicate any mechanism by which two Phoenix reigns could occur back-to-back on the physical Cycle itself. ... Taltos, Chapter 16, Book of Taltos pg 163: "It is commonly believed that if anyone had the strength to take hold of the great wheel that is the Cycle and physically move it, the time of the current House would pass, and the next would arrive. It is also commonly held that it would require enough strength to overcome all the weight contained by the forces of history, tradition, and will that keep the Cycle turning as it does. This being the case, it seems a moot point, especially when, as I stared at it, it was hard to imagine anyone with the strength to just move the bloody great wheel. "That's all it was, too. A big wheel stuck onto a wall in the middle of nowhere. On the wheel were engraved symbolic representations of all seventeen Houses. The Phoenix was at the top, the Dragon next in line, the Athyra having just passed. What a thrill it must be to be here when it actually changed, signaling the passing of another phase of Dragaeran history. At that point, either the Empress would step down, or she would have recently done so, or would soon do so, or perhaps she would refuse and blood would rain in the Empire until the political and the mystical were once more in agreement. When would it happen? Tomorrow? In a thousand years? "Everyone I've asked insists that this thing *is* the Cycle in every meaningful way, not merely its physical manifestation. I can't make sense of that, but if you can, more power to you, so to speak." ... Perhaps the Phoenix is "twice as wide" as the other houses, but then every Phoenix reign would be twice as wide, and not just when the Great Cycle advances. Prior to reading this passage, I had envisioned the cycle being somewhat like a clock, with a smaller cycle overlaid onto a larger cycle, and each full rotation of the smaller cycle triggered the larger cycle to rotate one tick. Perhaps even 17 cycles overlaid in such a fashion. Bryan